目錄
剛剛讀到OpenAI 的任務對齊主管Joshua Achiam的分享，他談到：“對於人工智能的下一階段，它將在大多數人不知道或不關心的長尾高度專業化技術任務方面變得更好，從而造成一種進展停滯不前的錯覺。"
大多數人不知道，不關心，就會讓人覺得AI發展停滯不前了？這個邏輯成立嗎？個人很好奇他所説的 "高度專業化任務 "是什麼？還是説OpenAI真的”撞牆“了？
我們來看看這個老哥説了什麼？
我預期將會出現一種奇特的現象：在 AI 的下一個階段，它將在大量高度專業化的技術任務上表現得更出色，而這些任務大多數人並不瞭解或關心，這將製造出一種進展停滯的錯覺
"A strange phenomenon I expect will play out: for the next phase of AI, it’s going to get better at a long tail of highly-specialized technical tasks that most people don’t know or care about, creating an illusion that progress is standing still."
研究人員會達成他們認為極其重要的里程碑，但多數用户在當時並不會理解其重要性。
"Researchers will hit milestones that they recognize as incredibly important, but most users will not understand the significance at the time."
整體的魯棒性將會逐步增強。一年之內，常用的大模型在編程、寫作和日常事務方面的可靠性將顯著提高。然而，魯棒性的提升並不引人注目，因此很多人可能不會察覺到其中的變化。
"Robustness across the board will increase gradually. In a year, common models will be much more reliably good at coding tasks, writing tasks, basic chores, etc. But robustness is not flashy and many people won’t perceive the difference."
或許在某個時刻，也許是兩年之後，人們會注意到 AI 已經深度融入了幾乎所有的商業領域，因為它已經跨越了所有的可靠性門檻。這就像智能手機從 2007 年的新奇事物演變為 2010 年代的無處不在一樣。
"At some point, maybe two years from now, people will look around and notice that AI is firmly embedded into nearly every facet of commerce because it will have crossed all the reliability thresholds. Like when smartphones went from a novelty in 2007 to ubiquitous in the 2010s."
對於接下來會發生的事情，我很難預測。許多因素存在不確定性，且依賴於未來的發展路徑。我唯一有信心的預測是，到 2026 年，Gary Marcus(一直以來對深度學習持懷疑態度的知名學者) 將會堅持認為深度學習已經觸及瓶頸
"It feels very hard to guess what happens after that. Much is uncertain and path dependent. My only confident prediction is that in 2026 Gary Marcus will insist that deep learning has hit a wall."
（附錄：整個討論甚至算不上什麼預測。這大致反映了自 2023 年初 GPT-4 發佈以來的討論現狀，並預計這一趨勢將會持續。各種改進和突破的長尾效應正被嚴重低估）
"(Addendum: this whole thread isn’t even much of a prediction. This is roughly how discourse has played out since GPT-4 was released in early 2023, and an expectation that the trend will continue. The long tail of improvements and breakthroughs is flying way under the radar.)"
我個人傾向於OpenAI內部GPT-5訓練可能真的不順，一個真正的好東西大眾卻無法感受，這個邏輯上不成立，不過據説o1正式版馬上就要發佈了，大家對o1的預覽版推出時是什麼感受？有沒有達到你的預期？Sam Altman 之前有説o1正式版要比預覽版強很多，果真如他所説，那2025年還真的值得期待的
